(Discussion Waterloo U
February17, 2011)
The opportunity to review and discuss the Ice Age
Hypothesis was much appreciated. The validity of the hypothesis which addresses
only the temperature cycles in the last million years rests on a number of
assumptions that need further checking.
Initiation of the cooling trend at
the peak of the warming trend
1. Proposition: The Ice Age is initiated by
excessive fresh water dilution of the Arctic Ocean and far North Atlantic
preventing formation of the dense (cold, salt) water thought to derive the Ocean
conveyor.
Question: Does warming of the Tropical Ocean drive result in a
sufficient increase in precipitation into the Arctic region generate a flow off
surface fresh water off Greenland sufficient to stop the sinking of cold dense
water thought to drive the Ocean Conveyor?
2. Proposition: The major
increase in precipitation in the Arctic reverses the flow through the Bering
Strait eliminating a source of sensible heat into the Arctic.
Question: What
is responsible for the flow of water through the Bering Strait into the Arctic
Ocean and how does this affect the Arctic heat balance?
3.
Proposition: The Gulf Stream without the current induced by the sinking of cold
dense water is no longer drawn northward and follows a more conventional surface
gyre circulation at lower latitude.
Question: Is the sinking of the cold
dense water off Greenland responsible diverting the Gulf Stream into the
Arctic?
4. Proposition: The loss of the sensible heat of the Gulf
Stream and the flow through the Bering Strait results in cooling of the Arctic
Ocean. This factor coupled with the continued high regional precipitation
induced by the still very warm tropical ocean greatly increases the quantity and
seasonal persistence of snow in the region amount, the increased albedo
reinforcing the cooling effect.
Question: Is the Gulf Stream when not drawn
into the Arctic region by sinking of the cold dense water driven entirely by the
action of the Westerly winds or does thermal expansion of water by solar heating
in the Gulf of Mexico contribute by raising the water elevation in that region
providing a continually regenerated hydraulic head that must flow
somewhere?
5. Proposition: The closing of the Isthmus of Panama 3
million years ago eliminated leakage of warm Gulf of Mexico water into the
Pacific Ocean increasing the flow of warm water into the North
Atlantic.
Question: The Ice Age cycle chart shows an immediate response
coincident with the closing of Panama but if linked why is it only in the last
million years that the cycle frequency changed from 40,000 years to 120,000
years coupled with a doubling of the magnitude of the cooling.
6.
Proposition: Matichenkov orbital cycles do not correlate well with Ice Age
cycles and while they may provide a ‘nudge’ marginally influencing the cycles,
terrestrial influences are dominant.
Question: What does a statistical
correlation show?
Process Postulated for Termination of the Ice
Age
1. Proposition: Water evaporated in the tropics is transferred
to the Arctic (and Antarctic) where it is fixed as ice, the tropical surface
water thereby increases in salinity and when carried poleward by the ocean
gyres it cools and intermittently sinks into the deep ocean water this sinking
being counter-balanced by rising deep water elsewhere The magnitude and
persistence of this effect increases as the sea level Falls, temperatures cool
and the salt content of the ocean surface increases eventually reaching a
critical level where circulation can be sustained and sufficient nutrients and
carbon dioxide is released the 100,000 year accumulation to sustain warming
trend.
Question: Do sediments or deep ocean analysis provide any evidence
of such a process occurring?
2. Proposition: The atmospheric
concentration of CO2 decreases over the 100,000 year cooling period of the Ice
Age and there is a reduction in the inventory of terrestrial
biomass.
Question: Where and how is this CO2 stored?
3.
Proposition: In the postulated that in the absence of deep water circulation
during most of the cooling period a small proportion of the biological mass in
the surface water settles into the deep water and is decomposed by bacterial
action liberating nutrients and building up a high CO2 concentration in the
bottom water that is partially and periodically released due the overturning of
the ocean initiated by sinking cold salt surface masses delivered to cold
regions of the ocean by the ocean gyres.
Question: Where else could the
carbon be stored?
4. Proposition: Renewed deep water circulation at
the end of the cooling cycle leads to release of CO2 and nutrients that
encourage an extensive phytoplankton bloom reinforcing the warming effect of
additional CO2.
Query: How can this effect be
substantiated?
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